Ten seasons. 847 opportunities. This is all he has to show for it.
After analyzing 847 post-timeout possessions across ten seasons of Edina ultimate, the data paints an unambiguous picture: Nate converts at a rate of 22.9%, roughly one-third the league average. This is not a slump. This is not bad luck. This is a decade-long statistical anomaly that has resisted coaching, encouragement, and the passage of time. The probability of a player of Nate’s experience converting at this rate by chance alone is less than 0.001%.
“We controlled for every variable we could think of. The one variable we couldn’t control for was Nate.”— Lead Researcher
What follows is the most comprehensive analysis ever conducted on a single player’s timeout conversion tendencies. We hope the findings prove useful. We doubt they will change anything.
The Long View
Year-over-year conversion rate, 2016–2025. The trendline is not encouraging.
* 2020 season lost to COVID-19, during which Nate presumably did not convert in his backyard either.
O-Line vs. D-Line
Bad on both. Worse on D.
O-Line: 27% · D-Line: 16% · p < 0.01
Competition Level
The bigger the stage, the bigger the choke.
Nationals conversion rate: 8%. That’s 6 for 75. Six.
Weather Impact
Nate and precipitation don’t mix.
Rain: 9%. The wind takes his confidence with it.
1st Half vs. 2nd Half
The fatigue factor is real.
1st Half: 26% · 2nd Half: 19% · He gets worse.
The Penicillin Curve™
Conversion rate by number of Penicillin cocktails consumed the night before. n = 847.
The data reveals a striking inverted-U relationship between Penicillin consumption and timeout conversion. At zero cocktails, Nate appears “tight”—overthinking, hesitant, converting at just 18%. Performance peaks at exactly two Penicillins (31%), suggesting an optimal relaxation threshold. Beyond that, returns diminish rapidly, bottoming out at 6% for four or more drinks.
“The Penicillin finding was, frankly, the only optimistic result in this entire study.”— Research Team, Internal Memo
OPTIMAL PENICILLIN DOSAGE: Exactly 2. Not 1. Not 3. Two.
The Cara-Theresa Coefficient
Does the presence of family on the sideline affect performance? (Yes. Negatively.)
When neither his wife Theresa nor daughter Cara are on the sideline, Nate converts at a respectable (for him) 26%. Each family member’s presence correlates with declining performance: Cara alone drops him to 22%, Theresa alone to 19%. When both are watching, Nate’s conversion rate plummets to 11%.
The research team debated whether this constitutes “performance anxiety” or “trying too hard.” We settled on “both.”
WHEN BOTH ARE WATCHING: 11%. That’s 1 in 9. That’s a coin flip where the coin has 9 sides and 8 of them say “turnover.”
The Dots Effect
“Just Have Dots Throw It”
When the player known as “Dots” is on the field, Nate’s conversion rate leaps to 58%—nearly triple his career average and within striking distance of the league norm. Without Dots, Nate converts at a rate of 17%.
“When Dots is on the field, Nate is a different player. When Dots is off the field, Nate is Nate.”— Anonymous Teammate
This finding raises a philosophical question the research team has been unable to resolve: Is Nate converting, or is Dots just putting the disc exactly where it needs to go and Nate happens to be standing there?
The Tottenham Correlation
When Spurs bottle it, so does Nate. r = 0.73, p < 0.001
Nate’s conversion rate tracks Tottenham Hotspur’s weekly results with a correlation coefficient of 0.73—stronger than most published nutrition studies. When Spurs win, Nate converts at 32%. When they draw, 23%. When they lose, he craters to 12%.
We cannot determine causation. But we can say with confidence that Spurs and Nate share a fundamental inability to perform when it matters most. The 2019 Champions League Final week, for the record, produced Nate’s worst single-tournament performance on file.
The London Proximity Index
Conversion rate by proximity to next scheduled London trip
When a London trip is booked within 30 days, Nate converts at 35%—his highest rate outside the Dots Effect. As the trip recedes into the future, so does his effectiveness. With no trip booked at all, he bottoms out at 17%.
The research team terms this “Motivated Nate”—a version of the player that, while still below average, at least appears to be trying.
RECOMMENDATION: Keep Nate perpetually 3 weeks from a London trip. Estimated annual cost: $14,200. Estimated improvement: +18 percentage points. Cost per additional conversion: $789. The team is currently exploring a GoFundMe.
The All-White Enigma
Pre-White Era (2016–2021) vs. All-White Era (2022–2025)
In 2022, Nate made the decisive wardrobe shift to all-white kit. He has since maintained that this change “elevated his game.” The data tells a different story.
Pre-white conversion rate: 23.5%. All-white conversion rate: 22.1%. The difference is not statistically significant (p = 0.42), though it does trend in the wrong direction.
THE ALL-WHITE ERA HAS PRODUCED ZERO MEASURABLE IMPROVEMENT. The kit is immaculate. The conversion rate is not. Nate disagrees. Nate is wrong.
The Black Ice / Bolt Premium
Conversion rate by play called out of timeout
When “Black Ice” is called, Nate converts at 41%. “Bolt” yields 38%. Every other play in the playbook? 14%.
“He only knows two plays.”— Anonymous Teammate (different one, same sentiment)
The research team recommends Edina formally retire all plays except Black Ice and Bolt. The projected improvement would bring Nate’s overall conversion rate to approximately 40%—still below league average, but within the realm of human performance.
Optimal Nate™ Configuration
If we optimize every controllable variable simultaneously
Under perfect conditions—optimizing every variable in our model—Nate could theoretically convert at 71.3%. That is barely above league average. This is the ceiling. This is the best-case scenario. We ran the model twice to make sure.
Data Collection
Trained observers (teammates who were paying attention) recorded each timeout conversion opportunity from 2016 to present. Observations were logged in a proprietary system (a shared Google Sheet that three people have edit access to and one person consistently forgets to update). The 2020 season was lost to COVID-19, during which Nate presumably did not convert in his backyard either.
Statistical Methods
We employed a rigorous methodology of “watching the game and writing it down.” All p-values were calculated after the fact to make the results appear more impressive. Confidence intervals are 95% unless they made the findings less interesting, in which case we used 90%. The Penicillin data relies on self-reported consumption, which the research team acknowledges may be “conservative.”
Peer Review
This study was submitted to the Journal of Recreational Sports Analytics and rejected. It was then submitted to the Edina Community Newsletter and also rejected. It was briefly considered by The Pudding before being described as “too niche, even for us.” It is currently self-published.
Conflicts of Interest
Several members of the research team have been personally victimized by Nate’s timeout conversions. We maintain that this has not affected our objectivity, though we acknowledge a statistically significant increase in sighing when reviewing the data.
Funding
This research was generously funded by HotLou Industries, whose motto is “Somebody Had To Do It.”™
Data Availability
The raw data is available upon request, but we’d prefer you just trust us.